Ready for Tomorrow's Verizon iPhone Announcement

Just finished reading Tim Wu's "The Master Switch."  It really shows the evil that is AT&T, with tons of historical perspective.  It is a must read for anyone interested in Telecom issues.

Tomorrow is predicted to be the announcement of the iPhone's arrival on Verizon.  In keeping with "The Master Switch" subject, if it finally happens, and it looks like it will, this is a huge blow to AT&T.  It will represent the first time in history that AT&T has lost a monopoly without a court order forcing them to do so.  It isn't quite the beginning of the end for AT&T, but it is a huge set back for them.

What the heck, yeah, it is the beginning of the end for AT&T.

I'll be commenting more once I find out the particulars tomorrow.  In the meantime, be sure to check out this book:

AT&T Loses the Future: And That's a Good Thing

A security analyst says that it's not all bad news for AT&T once Verizon gets the iPhone.  After all, there might be a short term gain (because AT&T won't have to subsidize iPhone purchases).  Of course, long term, it would be really bad.

Would a Verizon iPhone Help AT&T?

That's par for the course at AT&T where they always think about short term profits rather than long term viability.  The analyst also predicts there won't be a massive loss in current iPhone subscribers.  Something I believe will quickly prove to be completely wrong.

Is Cell Phone Data Really Like Water?

Dick Lynch, Verizon's chief technology officer, was one of the first to try to say that cell phone customers should be billed according to usage, "just like water and power companies."  AT&T quickly took up the message and ran with it, and now currently charges for data "like water."  Meanwhile, Verizon sits on the sidelines letting AT&T try this new experiment in pissing customers off.  As I've said before, data is not like water, and it's stupid and misleading to try to charge for it in that way.  Which is why no other major companies have followed AT&T off this cliff so far.  (They're offering a low budget tier, but so far none are charging like AT&T per gigabyte.)

But here's an interesting article that talks about cell phone uses, and how big companies can rip people off by supposedly "providing water" service:

What if Cell Phone Data Was Like Water?

AT&T's Good News / Bad News

When is good news for AT&T also bad news?  When they finally start to catch up to Verizon, but it's all because of Apple's iPhone:

Verizon Draws Even With AT&T

AT&T should be jumping with joy; they are finally catching up to Verizon in the number of cell phone subscribers.  The problem is, almost all of AT&T's sales growth for the last few years has been thanks to Apple's iPhone.  And AT&T is about to lose iPhone exclusivity, after spending years doing everything it can to piss off iPhone users.

Verizon's less that thrilling summer shows that the Droid has been almost a total bust as a competitor for the iPhone.  And that's not good news for AT&T, because it means they are more dependent than ever on Apple.  Moreover, it means it's clearly critical that Verizon makes a deal with Apple to get the iPhone, and Apple will be able to demand the best terms.  Not good news for either company.

AT&T iPhone Customers Want Verizon

Almost one in four AT&T iPhone customers would switch to Verizon, sight unseen, if they had the chance according to a new survey.


A Million AT&T Subscribers Want to Switch

I wonder how many people driving Fords would say they will switch to Chevy when they buy their next car?  Or how many people watching a Sony TV would say they want a Panasonic instead?  People are generally resistant to change unless necessary, and also instinctively loyal to whatever they already have even if there are better things in the world.   So AT&T has to be actively pissing off people for them to want to switch.

Just saying…

The End of Phone Service?

The far reaching implications of Apple's FaceTime are just starting to become clear.  Fortune writes about how many FaceTime capable devices Apple will release in the next two quarters:

50 Million FaceTime Devices

That number could double instantly if Apple makes FaceTime available through iChat on all it's camera equipped computers and laptops.  Being an open platform, that could then expand to hundreds of millions if Windows versions come out.  No reason they shouldn't.  And why shouldn't an Android app follow?

So basically, what we're talking about is the end of traditional phone service.  Hmm… AT&T, time to rethink tiered pricing?

Will FaceTime Destroy AT&T?

Here's an excellent piece by Mark Reschke on Steve Jobs' recent presentation and what it could mean for Apple's relationship with AT&T:

iPod Touch is an iPhone Without a Contract

I think Reschke is right that AT&T's move to tiered pricing pissed Steve Jobs off enough that he is now actively plotting against it.  FaceTime could be the ultimate weapon to break teleco's hold on American communication services.

Others have dismissed FaceTime as little more than a new way to Sext.  But sex is a big motivator, especially with young people.  If they start using FaceTime initially to hook up, they might give up traditional phone calls for good.